Heraclitus, a Greek philosopher said, “Change is the only constant in life.” John Lennon, a British philosopher, said, “Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans.” With both those quotes in mind, we will preface this entire blog with the caveat, “as of this writing.”
It looks like baseball and basketball are going to try and salvage their seasons while football still plans to kick-off their season in September. What remains to be seen is how the television audience will accept empty stadiums and arenas. How will we adjust to shortened schedules and revamped rules? How will players perform in front of empty seats? Will advertisers pay for an outfield billboard no one will see? Will we all boo recorded cheers?
The NFL Plans on Fans
We’re talking about pro sports but let’s start with a concern about college football. For the NFL, ticket revenue amounts to 15% of the money they generate. For the college game, it’s 75%. Eventually, if there’s no one in the stands in South Bend, there might not be any players on the field.
As of this writing, the NFL plans to move forward with the season starting on September 10th. The league is currently assuming there will be fans in the stands. We don’t know how many or if they’ll socially distance. Players could be at added risk. You can’t socially distance in a huddle or on the line, and the facemasks players wear won’t protect them.
Last NFL season, the average rate for a 30-second commercial was $424,000. That could actually go up. Fans are so starved for sports, ratings may skyrocket. The production of most television shows has been on hold, so new episodes — places for placement — will be limited.
Baseball Balks, the NBA Walks
Baseball plans to begin “Spring Training” on July 1 with the season starting on the 23rd. The National League will implement the designated hitter and if a game goes into extra innings, teams will start every half inning with a man at 2nd base, in scoring position. The season will be 60 games. A major league baseball season hasn’t been that short since sometime in the late 19th century.
22 NBA teams are returning to play on July 30th. The finals would end in October, which will delay the start of the next season. They are apparently going to play the games, hold practices and house players at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando. Many might call this approach, Mickey Mouse.
The X Factor
The real X factor in all of this is how games will look with no fans or few fans. They will likely make use of canned crowd noise which is not going to sound good. Games are going to look like practice. There won’t be any “home field” advantage. Teams will need to rethink corporate sponsorships.
An alliance of soccer fans from 16 European nations want to give artificial crowd noise a red card. The group says pre-recorded chants and artificial support is a rebuke to match-going fans. Nevertheless, professional soccer is being played again in Europe and empty stadiums are the “new normal.”
What if?
Across the pond we have a long list of “what if?” questions no one really knows the answer to. For example, in the NFL, what if there’s a spike in cases in a single state like Florida. Do the Dolphins, Bucs, and Jacksonville shut down? What happens to the schedule?
The bottom-line consensus seems to be this. If pro baseball, basketball, and football games look reasonably good on the screen, fans will watch, and advertisers will buy commercial time. If empty stadiums make the games seem soulless, few will watch, and advertisers will look for alternatives.